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After trending downwards throughout 2025, interest rates are widely believed to have reached their bottom, with some experts predicting a slight further drop in early 2026. However, the consensus indicates rates will likely plateau or gradually increase throughout 2026 and 2027, and longer-term fixed rates are already rising.
The Reserve Bank significantly cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.25%, making home loans cheaper, reflecting an economy with spare capacity despite early recovery signs. While the interest rate cycle appears to have bottomed out, the bank notes persistent upside risks to inflation and anticipates only mild house price increases in 2026. Given these uncertainties and projected economic growth, Tony Alexander suggests considering fixing mortgage rates for 3-5 years or splitting terms to manage risk.
